Critical Thinking Cafe

Problem Anticipation Can Prevent Costly Surprises

While sitting in my hotel room in Sunnyvale, California last evening I encountered a "problem" I didn't anticipate and that gave me a literal "jolt" when it happened. While living in California for 12 years, earthquakes became something I expected, anticipated, and didn't get too rattled over when they occurred. I found them to be kind of the ultimate roller coaster ride--lots of excitement with no clue as to what was ahead or when the ride would end. (Okay, the '89 San Francisco quake was a bit of an exception, but that's another story.)

After living in Texas for 13 years, earthquakes are no longer on my radar screen. I don't think about them, anticipate them, or expect them. So when a 5.6 shaker hit the San Jose area last evening, my mind immediately began racing for explanations as to why it sounded like the guy in the room above mine was doing aerobics and the shades on my windows were swinging back and forth without any hint of a breeze. I no longer anticipated the "problem" of an earthquake and it came as a big surprise.

I should have been more tuned in to planning for problems after spending two stimulating and rewarding days with a group of senior managers in a technical company talking about ways to resolve and prevent complex business problems. But my lack of anticipation left me wondering for a moment what to do.

As much as we stress problem anticipation and prevention, I recognize that there are some problems in life you can't prevent--death, taxes, getting older--and earthquakes are all in that category. That's why anticipating and planning for those types of problems becomes even more important. Anticipating a problem is the first step toward it's prevention or at least toward minimizing the impact of something when it happens.

Unfortunately, many business leaders don't take time to anticipate and plan for problems they can prevent which leaves them even more vulnerable when they are hit by a problem over which they have no control. Problem anticipation takes time. Cleaning up the mess after a problem hits also takes time and resources--and often draws people away from their focus on what needs to be done.

What problems, if they hit, would sideline your business or at least create a major distraction from your priorities? What are you doing to prevent those problems from occurring? It is too easy--and honestly, pretty irresponsible to put all potential problems in the same bucket as earthquakes and taxes.

Some focused anticipation and planning today can prevent a lot of problems you can control and will put you in a better position for the problems over which you have no control.

Decisions "At Face Value"

Last week, Princeton University released the findings of a very interesting research project. The study involved showing participants a pair of faces for a very brief period of time – as short as a tenth of a second. After viewing the faces, the participants were asked to reveal their “gut reaction” as to which face appeared more competent.

The faces shown were actually the images of individuals running against each other in political races. If a study participant recognized any of the faces, their input was thrown out of the study. In the data that remained, researchers made a startling discovery. Roughly 70% of the time, the face selected as “more competent” was the face of the winning candidate in recent senate and gubernatorial elections. While the study only proves that facial recognition is a decent way to beat the odds in predicting election winners, it begs two questions. First… “How in the world could I have lost that 7^th grade Student Council election to Billy ‘Crazy Eyes’ Cunningham?” Second… “How do we truly make decisions that affect our lives?”

From a political standpoint, Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, says that we really only make these snap judgements if we don’t have a lot of information to go on. Apparently, if I don’t know a candidate’s position on the issues most important to me, I suppose his haircut and eye color will suffice. Scary thought. These unnamed gut reactions could drive a decision that affects futures.

Don’t get me wrong. Not all “gut reactions” are bad. Still, they can be problematic – especially in today’s organizations. Take the following dialogue, for example.

Joe: “Why did you decide to hire Susan?”

Kelly: “She seemed like the best fit for the team.”

Joe: “What do you mean by that?”

Kelly: “I don’t know. Just something in my gut that tells me she’s perfect.”

If Susan ends up being a star employee, then this rationale may be adequate for Joe and Kelly. However, if Susan turns out to be a terrible employee, then poor Kelly is left holding the bag. She must account for this decision. She has to explain to everyone impacted by her decision that the ¨something in my gut¨ was valid reasoning and measurable criteria instead of just some bad shrimp scampi. 

Many of us have been in this position where we arrived at a decision, sometimes a group decision, and later on, the choice doesn’t pan out. We must answer to someone. Unfortunately, this is very difficult when “gut feel” is involved.

Though some may be able to recall bits and pieces of why we chose this marketing strategy or that location for a new call center, if we failed to expressly identify the criteria involved in our decision, then others are more apt to second guess us. In many cases, this can seem quite unfair if our “gut reactions” were based on years of experience. For instance, Kelly might say, “When we have hired employees like Susan in the past, they turned out to be star employees!” When pushed, we can often dip into this well of experience provide rationale behind our gut feelings. However, when we do this in response to someone questioning why a decision was a poor one, such descriptions seem more like excuses than criteria.

The key to an effective decision making process is describing your decision criteria in detail before you enter into the decision itself. Assure that everyone understands not only what will be the factors in the decision, but which will be most important. Is cost more important than quality? Is speed to market more important than impact to our existing customers? If a decision making team can reach consensus on these issues, then the decision itself becomes much easier when you can see how each alternative measures up against the criteria you have established. What’s more, after the decision is made, others can clearly see the rationale behind the decision, and are less likely to challenge the initial choice.

So… back to casting your vote.

In the end, you may find data that support the fact that more “competent-looking” people are truly more effective in political office. Maybe they get more done? I doubt it. But, if it’s true, then at least people can see there was some merit behind your gut reaction. This will lead to more effective decisions, and greater buy-in from those affected by the decision.

Just don’t assume people will take your decisions at “face” value!

Becoming Elvis

At the time of Elvis Presley’s (alleged) death in 1977, there were 170 Elvis impersonators wandering the planet. At first glance, that number seems plenty large enough to source Elvis talent for Halloween parties, traveling road shows, bachelorette parties, and yes, Vegas weddings. Even so, since that time, the population of Elvis impersonators has grown exponentially. In 2000, it was estimated that there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators worldwide. This number is so high that it likely surpasses the populations of a wide array of “in-demand” professions such as brain surgeons, rocket scientists, and perhaps, yoga instructors. Apparently, there must be plenty of Elvis work to go around, because I rarely see The King on a street corner holding a cardboard sign which reads “Will gyrate hips for food.”

For those of you who haven’t lost interest, there is another tidbit of information you may find deeply interesting (or disturbing). Should this exponential growth continue, we can surmise that, by 2019, one out of every three people on the planet will be an Elvis impersonator, or rather, “Elvis Tribute Artist” as those in the biz prefer to be called. That’s right. Look at the guy to your left. Now look at the lady to your right. In the next dozen years or so, one of you will be undergoing a major career change.

The best news of all is that those of you who are reading this blog have a leg up on the competition. If you find that you just don’t like the way your body looks in a gaudy sequined jumpsuit, and decide to keep your corporate job, you now have some insider information that could guide your corporate marketing strategy well into the next decade.

In the corporate world, data is king (pun intended), and THIS data says to invest heavily in big Cadillacs, big jumpsuits, and fried peanut-butter-and-banana sandwiches. It’s a can’t miss strategy!

Sounds crazy? 

It is.

But it’s not far from reality.

All too frequently we base business decisions on weak information, failing to realize that not all “data” is valuable. When it comes to problem solving, there is a Hierarchy of Information. At the top of the list are facts – objective data proven to be true. When trying to pinpoint the root cause of a problem, facts are critical. Unfortunately, when deadlines are fast approaching and fires need to be put out, we may not have the time or patience to track down facts. That’s when we pay tribute to Elvis and make inferences.

Inferences are not as valuable as facts, but certainly have some value. However, when we are basing our entire problem solving strategy on inferences, our vulnerability increases dramatically. Essentially, we take valid data, and compare it to our assumptions about what is real, and end up somewhere in the middle. This can lead to breakthrough thinking, but it also can lead entire companies down the wrong path. Consider the case of New Coke. Remember the Pepsi Challenge? Well, some at Coca Cola took the results of head-to-head taste tests and surmised that Pepsi was a better tasting beverage because a majority of testers preferred the taste. They neglected to identify that the taste tests merely asked people to compare beverages based on one or two sips, and not an entire bottle. Researchers have found that in head-to-head taste tests, the sweeter sample, whether a soft drink or a seasoning, is significantly more preferable. However, when tasted in larger quantities, this advantage dwindles. So, they made an inference, and also made one of the most famous marketing mistakes in recent memory.

Assumptions are even less valuable than inferences. With assumptions, we take some known factors, and blend them with some guesses, and arrive at “information.” It doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to see how this can be a liability when it comes to problem solving.

Finally, we sometimes make decisions and attempt to solve problems based on the least valuable piece of information of all – guesses. We take a stab in the dark to see if we can identify root cause. While this can be fun, the odds of finding out what is at the core of our problem is pretty remote. It’s also a huge drain on your time.

The key to success is to work with as many facts as possible. So, before you start memorizing the lyrics to “Love Me Tender,” do yourself a favor and take a critical look at the data that drive your decisions. Are we making some assumptions? Have we started to accept wild guesses as truth? Are our inferences taking us too far from what is known? If so, you might find that “Elvis has left the building…”

And he has taken your customers and profits with him.

Green Isn't a Problem--It's a Discipline

If going green is so good for us, why don't people jump at every chance to live this way? Perhaps the root cause of the problem is more personal than environmental.

I had to laugh while listening to former Dallas Mayor Laura Miller tell about the City Council's effort to introduce recyling in the country's ninth largest city. (I think that finally happened in 2005.) She told of one council member whining because he didn't want to take the time to rinse out a can before putting it in a recycling bin. C'mon already--complaining about a fifteen second investment toward saving the city a ton of money and achieving some noble environmental goals?

This morning CNN featured a great little article by Jeanne Huber from This Old House listing 22 ways you can go green in your home. Nothing dificult, little investment required, and huge dividends for a small amount of effort. I'm probably a bit strange (people who know me well would eliminate the qualifier in that statement) but I get a bit excited every week our recycling dumpster has more in it than the garbage dumpster. A little personal effort can make a huge corporate contribution.

Maybe we need to put less energy into debating the global issues and invest more time in resolving the bigger environmental problem--our lack of discipline.

The Risk of Creativity

What happened the last time anyone took a risk on your organization? Is that person now a "former employee" of your company? According to a recent survey by the Princeton-based consulting firm BlessingWhite breaking with corporate norms can be a way to open up new career opportunities (get fired) in some organizations.

BlessingWhite's survey of nearly 700 U.S. employees found that only 26 percent are encouraged to take risks while 41 percent said they are never asked to do it. Only 40 percent of the respondents said it is even safe to speak openly where they work.

The results of this survey remind me of Stanford professor Jeffrey Pfeffer's comment in his book, The Human Equation, "Many organizations want change, but nobody wants to do anything differently" (page 41).

Companies that want people to introduce creative ideas and innovative solutions must accept the risks inherent in any creative process. Genuine creativity (not just an old idea dressed in a new suit) can only take place in a culture that accepts--even encourages-- risk taking and doesn't punish people when a solution doesn't always turn out as planned.

Corporate leaders will give a nod to Einstein's belief that, "To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle requires a creative imagination and marks the real advances in science." But step carefully if you're the person (even as CEO) asking the hard questions, pushing new possibilities, or trying to get long-term stakeholders to look at an old problem from a new angle.

Every creative initiative carries with it a degree of risk. But in a rapidly-changing, competitive environment the greater risk is doing nothing.

Question Your Way to the Cause of Your Problems

When you're trying to solve a business problem--or any problem---a well-defined question will beat a deeply rooted assumption any day. Unfortunately, many people approach problems with a set of personal biases and preconceived ideas that cause them to mistakenly overlook or deliberately ignore critical information (like facts) that can lead them to the real cause of a recurring problem.

When reputations (and careers) are at stake, it is more politically safe to wander in a world of assumptions and guesses than to take the time to honestly ask the hard, direct questions that will guide you beyond visible symptoms to the root cause of a problem. The fear of appearing wrong, the need to assign blame, and our inherent tendency toward self-protection all get in the way when we are charged with finding out why something isn't turning out the way we expected. The staffing companies I worked for over 15 years made a lot of money from organizations that were content to throw labor and money at their problems rather than taking time to find out the real cause of their performance challenges.

Peter Drucker reminded us that, "The most serious mistakes are not being made as a result of wrong answers. The truly dangerous thing is asking the wrong questions" (Men, Ideas, and Politics).

The most costly move is asking no questions at all.

• Whenever you approach a situation where performance has declined (or dramatically improved) your first question should be, "What changed?" You can be sure something has because all deviations in performance are the result of change.
• When one area or department has never performed as well as another similar department or group ask, "What is distinct and different between the two groups?" Distinctions will guide you to cause.
• When you're dealing with multiple inter-related issues around a problem, separate and prioritize the impact of each factor if you want to get to what is really driving or deterring your success.

His style of writing is a bit dated (my apologies to female readers) but Rudyard Kipling's simple poetry is a good reminder to anyone engaged in solving problems--

I had six honest serving men--they taught me all I knew
Their names were Where and What and When--
And Why and How and Who.

Gravedigging Paramedics?

The city of San Francisco can't afford to give up pricey real estate for cemeteries, so not far from that grand city hundreds of acres of land are dedicated to massive cemeteries in the little-known city of Colma (1.98 square miles and 73% of it is cemeteries). Several years ago I was involved in sales in the Bay area and I discovered these cemeteries provide a serene place to eat lunch.

While eating in my car one day I looked into my rear-view mirror and saw a man standing by a graveside, leaning on a pole, carrying on a fairly animated conversation. I began to feel sorry for the fellow thinking he'd probably recently lost someone he loved and was working through his deep grief. My compassion was instantly shocked into amazement when I saw someone climb up out of the grave! No, nothing supernatural happened--my scene of grief was actually a couple of grave diggers completing another grave site--with one of them in the grave and the other standing next to it talking with his buddy.

So what does that story have to do with anticipating problems? Nothing. But it creates a nice bridge to a story that does show a creative effort to anticipate and prevent a recurring problem--at a rather strange location.

A group of cemeteries in Melbourne, Australia has installed defibrillators to resuscitate mourners attending funerals and the company has trained gravediggers in how to use the defib units. Elderly people generally have older friends and a couple of collapsed mourners a month, or calling the paramedics a few times a years are more than the executives at Cheltenham cemeteries can accept. The company has installed defib units so the grave diggers can provide emergency services to mourners who are overcome at a grave site.

While a cemetery obviously wants new business--people dying on the grounds creates a bit of a PR nightmare. A creative solution gave this organization international recognition and a practical way to bring value to its clients.

What creative ways have you found to prevent unwanted problems in your company?

Hiding Problems in a Zero-Defect Culture

You don't hear much about zero-defect companies anymore. Maybe that's because people have finally figured out there aren't any in existence. As I've traveled down the corporate road I've wondered from time to time how flawed people in a very flawed world are supposed to achieve perfection in anything. It's pretty ludicrous, when you think about it.

Early in my career I worked for a company that got all excited about achieving zero defects in our processes. In my youthful exuberance I was one of the people leading the charge. We really tried to eliminate all unfilled orders and any mistakes in how work was handled. It was a worthy aspiration. But after visiting offices where I found unfilled orders that were never recorded and were then conveniently filed in the trash I made an enlightening discovery. Zero defect cultures don't result in the absence of defects as much as they generate sophisticated ways to hide defects so they go unnoticed (and therefore unpunished).

Even with the best efforts to anticipate and plan for problems, some mistakes will occur. Realistic customers understand that and if you have a proactive method for fixing problems when they happen--you can usually keep a customer.

One of the fastest ways to promote dishonesty in an organization is to bridle people with unrealistic expectations.

Creativity with a Speedo = Problems in Guantanamo

One guy's creativity can sometimes become another guy's problem.

At the heart of creativity is combining previously unrelated elements in a new way. That's the driving force behind great advertising and it's what recently caused alarm at the Guantanamo Naval Base in Cuba.  Two prisoners were discovered to have a Speedo bathing suit and some athletic-style briefs--revealing a serious breech in security and raising an equally great concern for prisoner safety.

The concern over the contraband wasn't style--they aren't any runways in Guantanamo for previewing the latest in flimsy boxers and orange jumpsuits. The flap about fabric was over the potential for suicide.

I've never put Speedo and suicide together in the same sentence before but it appears other detainees with too much time on their hands discovered drawstrings and strong fabrics can bring a self-inflicted end to their imprisonment, making the appearance of a Speedo a serious problem for the U.S. military guarding the 300 suspected al Qaeda operatives in Guantanamo. Gratefully, the military has some history with anticipating and planning for problems so while they were unsuccessful in determining how the dangerous skivvies got into the prison, the fashionable but potentially deadly items were removed.

In no way am I making light of suicide and I'm certainly not advocating for a new line of designer prison garb. The enduring lesson from this story is that you don't always need a perfect environment for creative ideas to flourish. High stakes situations mixed with a sense of desperation can promote some pretty innovative solutions to what people perceive to be problems. That's why any time you implement a change or new initiative in a resistant or hostile environment you need to give extra attention to planning for what could go wrong during your implementation or your creativity will quickly become another guy's problem--and you won't like his solution.

Ted Kennedy is Glad His Doctor Anticipates Problems

Senator Ted Kennedy is recovering from surgery today--and is still alive, thanks to a doctor that anticipates problems. A routine check revealed that Mr. Kennedy had an "asymptomatic" blockage in his left carotid artery. Gratefully for Kennedy, his doctor knows that what looks innocent today can become deadly tomorrow.

Perhaps I'm sensitive to Kennedy's situation because during a routine check three years ago my attentive physician found an "asymtomatic" lump in my throat. It wasn't until the biopsy during surgery that anyone was able to confirm that this innocent lump was malignant. Gratefully, a skilled surgeon and excellent treatment has made that potential problem a great story to share--not an untimely ending to a life.

What "asymptomatic" issue is brewing in your world that doesn't look like a problem now--but if left unattened could quickly become a major challenge demanding your time and your company's resources? Yes, problem prevention costs time and money--but usually less of both than problem resolution.

Anticipation is the first step toward prevention. The surest way to prevent a problem is to plan for it.