Critical Thinking Cafe

Looking at Problems Through a Lens of Hope

Today's blog is an excerpt from Joe Jordan's book Wireframe: Creating the Structure for Enduring Success which will (hopefully) be published in 2008. This content is copyrighted and used by permission. All rights reserved.

After a year of unplanned challenges, unexpected setbacks, and unheard of problems it is tempting to pack your hope in a box in the attic of your mind and think the worst that could happen might be the best that will happen. You start sounding like the Peanuts character Snoopy as he bemoaned, "Yesterday I was a dog. Today I'm a dog. Tomorrow I'll probably still be a dog. Sigh! There's so little hope of advancement."

He was born in 1936 into one of the wealthiest and most influential families in Prague. His grandfather was a major leader in the arts and his uncle's work laid the foundation for the Czech film industry. Following the Communist coup in 1948, his family lost most of its wealth. A gifted author and playwright, he was banned as a writer after his condemnation of the Warsaw Pact invasion. In 1977 he was charged with trying to subvert the state and in 1979 was sentenced to four years in jail. Ten years later he was again incarcerated, this time for standing in the street.

During long nights in prison, Vaclav Havel could not have imagined that he would one day emerge as the central figure of the Velvet Revolution and become the first president of the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic. Repeatedly slammed by discouragement, defeat, and the unfairness of life, Havel continued to pursue his dream of a better future for himself and his nation. He learned to see beyond his current circumstances, refusing to allow the realities of the present to dim his convictions about the future. In 1995, Havel shared a message that articulated the beliefs that kept him pressing forward after hitting wall after wall of opposition.

Many times in my life and not just when I was in prison, I found myself in a situation in which everything seemed to conspire against me, when nothing I wished for or worked for seemed likely to succeed. . . Whenever I found myself immersed in such melancholy thoughts I would ask myself a very simple question over and over again, 'Why don't you just give up on everything?' . . . Each time, I would eventually realize that hope, in the deepest sense of the word, does not come from the outside, that hope is not something to be found in external indications simply when a course of action may turn out well . . . hope is a state of mind, and we either have it or we don't, quite independently of the state of affairs immediately around us . . . Indeed, only the infinite and eternal, recognized or surmised, can explain the no less mysterious phenomenon of hope. (Speech by Vaclav Havel at the Hiroshima Memorial)

Wherever you are in your journey as a leader, remember that your attitude is not dictated by your circumstances. The attitude you carry today is the attitude you choose to carry. Choose to look at life through a lens of hope. Unexpected vents often bring unwanted adjustments. Difficulties in business and in life are not dispersed through a merit system. Doing what is right--even solving a difficult problem---can make a situation more difficult than before. If you fixate on the tough things that cross your path you will likely become a very negative person.

One of the treasured gifts you can always give to yourself--and to those around you--is your genuine hope that tomorrow will be better than today.

Don't Be a Scrooge About Having Problems

What do you get when you mix a bit of information, a healthy imagination, and someone with too much free time? The answer is--an urban legend--one of those intriguing stories that sounds plausible, but turns out to be more fiction than fact. (If you want to read some of the wildest--and the tales they're tied to visit http://www.snopes.com/.)

There are also stories floating around that sound like legend, but are anchored in reality. For example, did you know that. . .?

• Two of Santa's reindeer were originally called Dunder and Blixem, not Donner and Blitzen.
• Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer was created for a Montgomery Wards marketing program.
• Wassailing originated as a custom of honoring one's livestock and crops in hopes of a better yield next year.
• Two brothers exchanged the same pair of pants at Christmas for 20 years.

Here's one more line that is often assumed to be as fanciful as Marley's Ghost but is as solid as last year's fruitcake: Having problems isn't a problem.

If I asked you to make a quick review of the past 12 months and to identify the moments when you learned the most or matured the most--either professionally or personally, those defining chapters of 2007 were probably connected with your involvement in solving problems. Knowing how to engage in critical thinking doesn't insulate you from life's problems--it just gives you a more defined and reliable method for solving them.

Speaker and author John Ortberg reminds us, "When teachers want students to grow, they don't give them answers--they give them problems! ('If a train leaves Cleveland at 3:00 going 50 m.p.h...') It is only in the process of accepting and solving problems that our ability to think creatively is enhanced, our persistence is strengthened, and our self-confidence is deepened. If someone gives me the answers, I may get a good score on a test, but I will not have grown. Just as our bodies simply will not grow stronger without being challenged to the point of exertion, so it is with our minds and our spirit" (If You Want to Walk on Water, page 47).

An effective critical thinking process begins with a healthy attitude about problems--accepting the reality that life has problems and even the best efforts to anticipate and plan for them won't protect you from all of life's unexpected turns. As one wag put it, "There are only two problem-free states: comatose and dead."

From delayed flights, to unwanted gifts, to overconsumption, to weird family dynamics--the holidays carry with them an abundance of problems. If you perceive every challenge as a battle to be won, you can expect a lot of conflict during the next two weeks. If you see problems as opportunities for addressing the bigger issues (root cause), using creativity, making good decisions, and looking for what you can learn in each situation--you'll start the New Year wiser than you ended this one.

Happy Holidays--

You Need More Information? Bah, humbug!

It seems reasonable that the Information Age should eventually lead us to information overload--and it has. From voice mail systems that can't accept more messages to in-boxes that are cluttered with unopened emails to executive summaries that bury us in statistics and detail, our worlds are flooded with information. Access to and the availability of information are no longer problems for most professionals. Knowing how to use that information to solve problems and make decisions is an on-going challenge for many of us, underscoring Warren Bennis' comment that "There is a profound difference between information and meaning."

The ever-increasing speed with which information is communicated and transferred creates the expectation that the speed with which we personally process information and then use that knowledge to make decisions should be improving as well. But without a process for evaluating and focusing information--a methodology for critical thinking--the abundance of information rarely improves individual or collective performance.

William Pollard reminds us that, "Information is a source of learning. But unless it is organized, processed, and available to the right people in a format for decision making, it is a burden, not a benefit."

One of the dangerous myths leaders embrace is believing that having information is all that is needed for good decision-making. Critical thinking engages us in looking at information in the context of the system in which it exists and then knowing how to distinguish facts from inferences, assumptions, and guesses. Like a series of actions in a cause and effect scenario, information doesn't exist in isolation. Failing to recognize the connections between multiple data points is frequently the cause of problem solving focused on the wrong problem, solutions that don't fix anything, and decisions that create no lasting change.

Dumb and Dumber--Corporate Style

If you've had a tough year marked by a poorly framed decision or a miscalculation of gargantuan proportions you'd probably rather avoid the additional publicity that comes when your corporate fumble appears on Fortune's list of the 101 Dumbest Moments in Business for 2007. The addition of YouTube, blogging, and social networking sites makes it harder than ever to hide your mistakes behind a well-crafted press release.

Fortune's 101 Dumbest provides some painful reminders that

• Who you are individually and what a company is collectively are revealed most clearly when we encounter difficulty.
• The need to anticipate and plan for problems never goes away.

Many of this year's winners are companies with plenty of bright and talented people that just didn't think far enough through a brilliant idea to realize what it might create or become (Merrill Lynch's $1.3 billion purchase of First Franklin Financial). A few other cases are examples of people who allowed their personal goals to smother the life out of their common sense (the District of Columbia judge who lost his reappointment due to a failure to demonstrate "appropriate judgment and judicial temperament" following his $54 million lawsuit against a dry cleaner who misplaced the judge's pants).

Fortune's list has at least one great example of a company that learned from the past and planned for the worst. Fast-food chain Taco Bell did a great job anticipating and planning for people mistaking the fast-food giant's menu for Mexican food when opening a new restaurant in Mexico. After a failed launch in Mexico 15 years ago, Taco Bell opened a new store this year by describing meals as "a fast food alternative that does not pretend to be Mexican food."

Lloyd and Harry would probably have a good response for that.

Vision Distortions that Derail Growth

It is easy--and dangerous to confuse a goal with reality and to so fully embrace a vision that you lose touch with what you see every day. Vision is an essential part of leadership. But visionaries and those that follow them wander into dangerous territory when they begin to believe one or more of these vision-clouding myths.

Mission statements define culture. While they are an important component of leading a team of people, mission statements do not define a company's culture. The way people behave every day is what defines a company and those behaviors can easily become widely separated from the idealistic and well-intentioned statements that hang on the walls of a human resources department, in a corporate lobby, or even in a well-appointed board room. The dream of what a company can and should be is important. Authentically admitting what a company is today is critical for lasting growth and health. Leaders lose credibility when their messages about a company only vaguely compare to the environment people work in each day.

Strategies determine priorities. Annual, corporate, or monthly strategy sessions do not define the priorities and direction of an organization. Direction is determined and set dozens of times each day as leaders and managers make decisions about how they will allocate the resources of a company. Strategy may clarify the intended direction of an organization, but what decision-makers choose to do with money, people, time, and materials ultimately and literally define the priorities of an organization. And when people fail to see the organization as an entire system, those decisions will often be directly opposed to the stated vision.

Purpose overcomes problems. The problem you ignore today often becomes the disaster you'll dread tomorrow. Eleanor Roosevelt was right when she said, "The things you refuse to meet today always come back at you later on, usually under circumstances which make the decision twice as difficult as it originally was." Motivational quotes, promises that things will get better, and a vision that motivates people to invest more and more are not enough to overcome systemic problems that are allowed to remain ignored and unresolved.

Healthy vision draws us toward the future while allowing us a clear view of current realities.

Cause and Effect Don't Always Hang Together

Efforts to isolate and identify the root cause of a complex problem without seeing the problem within the context of a larger system often result in short-term fixes that can create additional complexity and future problems. All problems are the result of change. Today's problems may have their roots in changes that occurred weeks or months ago. If we fail to look across an entire system when pursuing the cause of a problem we can mistakenly make a well-intentioned change that we hope will fix the original problem but ultimately causes a new problem in another part of the system--without resolving the original issue.

When this scenario is replicated a few times, we engage in the classic "knob turning" method of problem resolution--reactively trying one fix after another without ever getting to the heart of the issue--or seeing how the system is creating and feeding the more visible problem.

Problems rarely exist in isolation and they cannot be resolved without connecting them with their larger systemic context. Drawing a picture that shows where a problem operates within a larger system is an important step in creating a solution that will resolve the problem and encourage positive momentum toward better performance.

How Risk and Uncertainty Influence Decisions

While you may not know his name, whenever you make a major decision you encounter the tension (and emotional struggle) he recognized and defined. For twenty years, Frank Knight and his colleague Jacob Viner directed the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. Knight's dissertation titled Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921) drew a distinction between risk (when the probability of an outcome is possible to calculate and insure against) and uncertainty (when the probability of something cannot be determined).

The underlying problem with any major decision is you cannot know the outcome or be certain, after the decision is made, whether or not another choice would have been a better option. The use of a criteria-driven decision making process helps you ensure against the risks in a decision by making the process as quantified as possible. Tension builds when you expect even the best decision process to eliminate all of the uncertainty that is inherent in a decision.

When a child starts driving, the family's auto insurance carrier protects itself and the family against the known and calculated risks of a teenage driver by raising the insurance premium by one hundred percent or more. The insurer has enough documented experience to accurately calculate the risk probabilities and protect everyone against them. But there are no premiums high enough to eliminate the uncertainty a parent feels when that new driver pulls out of the garage and on to the street.

I've met several people with the title Risk Manager. I've never met anyone that told me they were hired to be the Uncertainty Manager. (A few years ago, Fast Company provided some valuable insight into this tension in an article titled No Risk, No Reward.)

It is difficult to protect against every risk and impossible to eliminate all uncertainty in a major decision. When the criteria in a decision are clearly identified and accurately quantified they can be compared against the alternatives, making any decision a logical process that balances emotion with reason.

Attempting to eliminate all uncertainty in a decision often results in no decision at all (which is the decision). You can't eliminate decision uncertainty so balance it by accurately and effectively managing a decision's risks.

Guns at Work: What's the Problem?

Do you know what Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, and Minnesota have in common? As diverse as these states are, they share a unique viewpoint. Each of these states prohibit employers from telling employees they cannot keep a gun in a locked vehicle in a company parking lot. These states do not believe the Occupational Safety and Health Act's requirement that an employer, "furnish to each of his employees employment and a place of employment which are free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm" means you can't have a gun in your car while at work.

This debate recently hit the fan in Oklahoma where an Oklahoma federal court ruled that a state law barring employers from prohibiting weapons on company property was not valid because it was pre-empted by federal law. This ruling will likely go to the OK supreme court and the discussion will fuel the debate in other states as well.

You might be surprised to discover that the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) is not waving a "No Guns" banner in this debate. SHRM manager of government relations Bob Carragher states that SHRM is not in favor of any policy that bans guns in the workplace. "What we've always argued," says Carragher "and the judge has agreed, is that all employers have to abide by the OSH Act's general duty clause. . . But since the OSH Act does not have a weapons workplace standard, it is up to individual employers as to how to best meet the requirement of the general duty clause" (SHRM Workplace Law Library, 10/24/07).

It appears that HR professionals, employers, state governments, and the federal government are stuck at the first step of their problem solving process--they don't agree on the problem they're trying to solve. Most of us have worked for someone we occasionally wanted to strangle, maim, or otherwise harm. Would immediate access to a pistol in your car have changed the trajectory of your career during those times when you and your boss were at odds?

Yesterday a young man walked in to a Nebraska shopping mall and killed eight people before taking his own life. Does  proximity to a firearm make it more likely that someone will use the gun in an act of violence?

What's the problem we're trying to solve and will either state or federal legislation fix it?

It looks like this debate is just getting started.

Systemic Problem Solving

Your system is perfectly designed to give you the results you're getting.

That statement by W. Edwards Deming underscores why so many problem-solving efforts fail to achieve their intended objectives. No problems stand alone. The interconnectedness of human relationships, organizations, markets, supply chains, etc. make it impossible to approach any problem as an isolated event, independent of a larger system.

Our English word "system" comes from two root concepts - to combine and to cause to stand, resulting in a term that refers to "a regularly interacting or interdependent group of items forming a unified whole" (Webster's New Collegiate Distionary). Thomas Merton's idea that no man (or organization) is an island extends far beyond the philosophical and theological discussion of his book by that title. Nothing is completely independent.

When revenue drops in a company, management often looks first to the sales organization for answers. Obviously, more people buying a product or service results in more revenue for the company. But failing to look at the entire revenue-generation system could result in a lot of blame and problem correction going to the wrong place. While money invested in better recruiting, more robust training, and a new method for managing the sales process will provide marginal improvement, those remedies may not address the heart of the issue.

Revenue in any organization is dependent on a system that includes

1. Revenue
2. Closed sales
3. An effective sales process
4. A pipeline of qualified prospects
5. An adequate number of qualified leads
6. Effective marketing that attracts qualified prospects

When this system is viewed as a whole entity (and looked at in relation to all the other systems in an organization) it becomes apparent that lagging revenue may have a root cause far from the point where a customer makes a buying decision or where a salesperson helps the prospect evaluate the value of a product or service. Sales growth is dependent on a pipeline of qualified prospects. A sales pipeline develops from an adequate number of qualified leads. Those potential clients are generally reached through some type of marketing.

Peter Senge points out that the "invisible fabrics or interrelated actions" present in businesses "often take years to fully play out their effects on each other" (The Fifth Discipline, pages 6-7). A lag in sales this year may be the result of inadequate investments in marketing during previous years. The push for profits one year can precipitate a drop in revenue the next. Companies that fail to look at the long-term, systemic impact of their decisions are doomed to an endless cycle of cause analysis, problem solving, and looking for new solutions when the bigger problem is a system that is not designed to produce the desired result.

If you don't like your results, don't focus on isolated events--look at the entire system. The cause of your problem may lie far from your point of immediate pain.