Critical Thinking Cafe

Becoming Elvis

At the time of Elvis Presley’s (alleged) death in 1977, there were 170 Elvis impersonators wandering the planet. At first glance, that number seems plenty large enough to source Elvis talent for Halloween parties, traveling road shows, bachelorette parties, and yes, Vegas weddings. Even so, since that time, the population of Elvis impersonators has grown exponentially. In 2000, it was estimated that there were 85,000 Elvis impersonators worldwide. This number is so high that it likely surpasses the populations of a wide array of “in-demand” professions such as brain surgeons, rocket scientists, and perhaps, yoga instructors. Apparently, there must be plenty of Elvis work to go around, because I rarely see The King on a street corner holding a cardboard sign which reads “Will gyrate hips for food.”

For those of you who haven’t lost interest, there is another tidbit of information you may find deeply interesting (or disturbing). Should this exponential growth continue, we can surmise that, by 2019, one out of every three people on the planet will be an Elvis impersonator, or rather, “Elvis Tribute Artist” as those in the biz prefer to be called. That’s right. Look at the guy to your left. Now look at the lady to your right. In the next dozen years or so, one of you will be undergoing a major career change.

The best news of all is that those of you who are reading this blog have a leg up on the competition. If you find that you just don’t like the way your body looks in a gaudy sequined jumpsuit, and decide to keep your corporate job, you now have some insider information that could guide your corporate marketing strategy well into the next decade.

In the corporate world, data is king (pun intended), and THIS data says to invest heavily in big Cadillacs, big jumpsuits, and fried peanut-butter-and-banana sandwiches. It’s a can’t miss strategy!

Sounds crazy? 

It is.

But it’s not far from reality.

All too frequently we base business decisions on weak information, failing to realize that not all “data” is valuable. When it comes to problem solving, there is a Hierarchy of Information. At the top of the list are facts – objective data proven to be true. When trying to pinpoint the root cause of a problem, facts are critical. Unfortunately, when deadlines are fast approaching and fires need to be put out, we may not have the time or patience to track down facts. That’s when we pay tribute to Elvis and make inferences.

Inferences are not as valuable as facts, but certainly have some value. However, when we are basing our entire problem solving strategy on inferences, our vulnerability increases dramatically. Essentially, we take valid data, and compare it to our assumptions about what is real, and end up somewhere in the middle. This can lead to breakthrough thinking, but it also can lead entire companies down the wrong path. Consider the case of New Coke. Remember the Pepsi Challenge? Well, some at Coca Cola took the results of head-to-head taste tests and surmised that Pepsi was a better tasting beverage because a majority of testers preferred the taste. They neglected to identify that the taste tests merely asked people to compare beverages based on one or two sips, and not an entire bottle. Researchers have found that in head-to-head taste tests, the sweeter sample, whether a soft drink or a seasoning, is significantly more preferable. However, when tasted in larger quantities, this advantage dwindles. So, they made an inference, and also made one of the most famous marketing mistakes in recent memory.

Assumptions are even less valuable than inferences. With assumptions, we take some known factors, and blend them with some guesses, and arrive at “information.” It doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to see how this can be a liability when it comes to problem solving.

Finally, we sometimes make decisions and attempt to solve problems based on the least valuable piece of information of all – guesses. We take a stab in the dark to see if we can identify root cause. While this can be fun, the odds of finding out what is at the core of our problem is pretty remote. It’s also a huge drain on your time.

The key to success is to work with as many facts as possible. So, before you start memorizing the lyrics to “Love Me Tender,” do yourself a favor and take a critical look at the data that drive your decisions. Are we making some assumptions? Have we started to accept wild guesses as truth? Are our inferences taking us too far from what is known? If so, you might find that “Elvis has left the building…”

And he has taken your customers and profits with him.

Question Your Way to the Cause of Your Problems

When you're trying to solve a business problem--or any problem---a well-defined question will beat a deeply rooted assumption any day. Unfortunately, many people approach problems with a set of personal biases and preconceived ideas that cause them to mistakenly overlook or deliberately ignore critical information (like facts) that can lead them to the real cause of a recurring problem.

When reputations (and careers) are at stake, it is more politically safe to wander in a world of assumptions and guesses than to take the time to honestly ask the hard, direct questions that will guide you beyond visible symptoms to the root cause of a problem. The fear of appearing wrong, the need to assign blame, and our inherent tendency toward self-protection all get in the way when we are charged with finding out why something isn't turning out the way we expected. The staffing companies I worked for over 15 years made a lot of money from organizations that were content to throw labor and money at their problems rather than taking time to find out the real cause of their performance challenges.

Peter Drucker reminded us that, "The most serious mistakes are not being made as a result of wrong answers. The truly dangerous thing is asking the wrong questions" (Men, Ideas, and Politics).

The most costly move is asking no questions at all.

• Whenever you approach a situation where performance has declined (or dramatically improved) your first question should be, "What changed?" You can be sure something has because all deviations in performance are the result of change.
• When one area or department has never performed as well as another similar department or group ask, "What is distinct and different between the two groups?" Distinctions will guide you to cause.
• When you're dealing with multiple inter-related issues around a problem, separate and prioritize the impact of each factor if you want to get to what is really driving or deterring your success.

His style of writing is a bit dated (my apologies to female readers) but Rudyard Kipling's simple poetry is a good reminder to anyone engaged in solving problems--

I had six honest serving men--they taught me all I knew
Their names were Where and What and When--
And Why and How and Who.

You Can't Fix a Problem by Scaring Away the Cure

My colleague, Scott Dannemiller and I were in a bit of a hurry to return our airport rental car last night . We accidentally pulled into the wrong terminal garage and were told by the rental car attendant that we needed to drive back out of the garage and go to Terminal 3 to return our car and catch our flight.

We got back into the car and pulled up to the exit as the metal arm lowered across the driveway. The arm didn't raise again, so we asked the uniformed attendant if the gate was working. He told us it was indeed operational, but that the rental car employees were on strike and their "rules of engagement" required that only one car exit the rental car garage every three minutes. Being congenial guys, we passsed the time talking more with the guard. We learned that early in the strike one car was allowed to escape from the garage every 45 minutes!

Labor disputes and worker strikes are a part of life. No issue there. What struck me a bit odd is that the person feeling the ultimate pain in this scenario is the customer. We waited out our three miniutes with a modicum of patience. You can be sure the news of a 45 minute wait would have not been met with the same level of congeniality.

The root cause of this strike is undoubtedly a disagreement with management about one or several issues. Generally, these kind of disagreements center to some degree around money. If the bargaining process alienates the customer base to the point they won't return, the future revenue of the company is impacted. Less customers=less revenue=less operating cash=fewer options.

Scaring away the people that can help you get what you want seems like an odd way to try to solve a problem.

Yesterday's Problem--Again

Problems that won't go away usually don't win you any prizes. A guy in Puerto Rico turned his repeating problem into a win when his nine year-old mare lost its 125th race, achieving the distinction of having the longest losing streak of any horse in racing history. The best place Dona Chepa has ever touched is second and she has finished out of the money 90 times during her career.

The corporate world is a bit less forgiving than a race track. The inability to identify and resolve the root cause of a problem usually means the problem repeats itself. Repeated problems cost companies resources, time, missed opportunities, and ultimately--profitability. On a more personal level--repeated problems can provide you with an unexpected invitation to explore new career options.

John Foster Dulles was on target when he said, "The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year."

If you don't have time to get to the root cause of a problem now, what makes you think you'll have time to fix the problem again later? An hour of focused cause analysis can save you multiplied hours invested in developing and implementing "fixes" that have little ultimate impact on the real problem.

In the corporate world, they don't give prizes to the slow horse.

Don't Try to Hide a Problem in Complexity

It seems pretty basic, but people and organizations are embarrasingly bad at not recognizing when a problem exists, allowing a small problem to mature until it becomes a BIG problem, requiring large investments of both time and resources to resolve the issue. Simply stated, a problem exists any time actual performance is less than expected and the gap is big enough to be a concern to you. Once the performance "gap" is identified, it is important to determine the real or root cause of the problem--or problem solving efforts quickly become an exercise in futility.

Unfortunately, many people get enamored with complexity and their efforts to resolve a problem without knowing the real cause lead them to make changes that actually cover up or complicate the real problem. A headache (symptom) often responds to a quick solution (Ibuprofen). But if the cause of an on-going headache isn't identified (root cause analysis) all the pain medication in the world won't fix the real problem--a tumor.

Courageous critical thinkers don't hide their problems in a smoke screen of complexity.

SEO Problem Solving

Two years ago if you asked me to define Search Engine Optimization (SEO) or if you asked me how my pay-per-click campaign was doing, I wouldn’t have known what you were talking about. Raise either of those questions now and I can confidently tell you that I know enough about SEO and PPC to be. . . well, totally frustrated!

Twenty-four months ago my vocabulary didn’t include terms like page rank, organic search results, conversion rate, page views, or bounce rate. Today those phrases flow from my lips with ease. My SEO efforts and my attempts to get Google to acknowledge our company’s presence has tempted me to use some other words too—but I won’t list them here. . .

When you rely on the internet as a primary source for prospects, you want your efforts to work and your investments to pay a solid return. We found using a critical thinking process to get to the heart of our problem and identify some solutions has helped us maximize our investment—and significantly reduce our frustration.

Define your problem. A problem exists whenever actual performance is less than expected and the gap is large enough to be of concern to you. Enhancing your internet presence may mean you need to identify and resolve several separate problems from page rank to better bid management to adding new content to your site.

Identify the cause of the problem. You can’t resolve a problem unless you know the root cause. Clearly identify what the problem is—and also what it is not. Is your problem not enough visitors to your website or are the visitors not going far enough into your site to find out what your business is all about? Is your problem a lack of traffic or not enough conversions? Take time to define what the problem is (and isn’t). Clarify the size and extent of the problem. Identify where in the process your problem occurs. Determine when the problem started, if it’s continuing, and any other times you have seen this happen.

Create a list of possible solutions. Get creative. If you don’t know what you don’t know, spend time with salespeople from SEO marketing companies and let them educate you. Compare what you hear and create a list of options you want to consider. Our SEO marketing company has given us alternatives we had not considered and has helped us prioritize our investments for the best return.

Select your best solutions using clearly defined criteria. The internet roller coaster can create havoc for you if you allow your decisions to be driven by emotion and gut reaction rather than objective criteria. Take time to determine how budget, time utilization, available resources, corporate strategy, marketing philosophy, etc. will guide your decisions.

Anticipate the problems that are inherent in every change. Even positive changes can create problems unless you take time to identify what could go wrong and plan for how you will prevent the problem from occurring. A dramatic rework of our website resulted in our disappearance from Google’s natural search results when we didn’t anticipate the loss of the hundreds of backlinks on our old site.

Internet marketing doesn’t have to be a source of endless irritation or a dark hole into which you pour thousands of dollars with out any certainty as to the result. Time invested in a critical analysis of your situation will pay for itself in multiples through a well-executed internet strategy.